bayesRatings

Nationals at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final WSH 3 – MIL 1
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000020001390
MIL000000001122
Team box
WSH·MIL
9
hits
2
0
home runs
1
5
walks
6
5
strikeouts
7
134
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL1-4111
Nasim NunezWSH3-3200
James WoodWSH1-3002
Keibert RuizWSH1-3001
Jacob YoungWSH2-4100
Joey OrtizMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)WSH5.11031
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.01122
Kyle Harrison (L)MIL4.15211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 0 · WSH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
MIL by 1.8
Expected score
MIL 5.7 – 3.9 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupBrewers
+174Our fair odds−174
3.9Expected runs5.7
−0.23Power rating+0.24
6.0Runs / game5.6
6.2Allowed / game4.1
9.5Hits / game8.2
1.23Home runs / game0.85
3.5Walks drawn / game5.2
5−8Season record8−5
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIL chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+17436%+14640.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17464%−17563.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.8
WSHWashington Nationals+1.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more52%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more41%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 2 starts: 10.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIL
Apr 10 at MIL
last game
Apr 10 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
WSH·MIL
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
6.0
runs / game
5.6
6.2
runs allowed / game
4.1
5−8
season record
8−5
1−5
home record
5−2
4−3
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
5−5
9.5
hits / game
8.2
1.23
home runs / game
0.85
3.5
walks drawn / game
5.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
1.00
errors / game
0.15

Rating Trend

WSH · MIL · 17 days
Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Apr 10at MILWSH 7 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at WSHMIL 14 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at WSHMIL 8 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at WSHMIL 16 − 9
Jul 13, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Aug 3, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at WSHMIL 8 − 3

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L