bayesRatings

Nationals at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final WSH 7 – MIL 3
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH2000001047111
MIL300000000341
Team box
WSH·MIL
11
hits
4
0
home runs
1
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
7
156
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-3113
James WoodWSH4-5101
CJ AbramsWSH2-3101
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4101
Curtis MeadWSH1-5101
Jacob YoungWSH1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake IrvinWSH5.02355
PJ Poulin (W)WSH1.00000
Aaron AshbyMIL2.13204
Trevor Megill (L)MIL0.02400

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · WSH 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 35%, MIL 65% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
MIL by 1.9
Expected score
MIL 5.7 – 3.8 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupBrewers
+184Our fair odds−184
3.8Expected runs5.7
−0.26Power rating+0.27
5.9Runs / game5.8
6.5Allowed / game3.8
9.4Hits / game8.5
1.33Home runs / game0.83
3.7Walks drawn / game5.2
4−8Season record8−4
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIL chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+18435%+17336.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−18465%−20867.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.9
WSHWashington Nationals+1.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.9 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more52%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more42%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILAaron Ashby RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIL
Apr 8 vs STL
last game
Apr 8 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
WSH·MIL
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
5.9
runs / game
5.8
6.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
4−8
season record
8−4
1−5
home record
5−1
3−3
away record
3−3
L2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
6−4
9.4
hits / game
8.5
1.33
home runs / game
0.83
3.7
walks drawn / game
5.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.3
1.00
errors / game
0.08

Rating Trend

WSH · MIL · 16 days
Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Aug 3, 2025at WSHMIL 14 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at WSHMIL 8 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at WSHMIL 16 − 9
Jul 13, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Aug 3, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at WSHMIL 8 − 3
Jul 14, 2024at MILMIL 9 − 3

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W