bayesRatings

Nationals at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final WSH 8 – MIL 6
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH0002004208120
MIL001110300692
Team box
WSH·MIL
12
hits
9
1
home runs
4
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
5
132
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-4322
Gary SanchezMIL1-2113
Jake BauersMIL2-4111
James WoodWSH1-3211
Keibert RuizWSH1-1002
CJ AbramsWSH2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack LittellWSH5.06303
PJ Poulin (W)WSH1.11000
Gus Varland (S)WSH1.00001
Brandon WoodruffMIL6.03116
Angel Zerpa (L)MIL0.24410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · WSH 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 37%, MIL 63% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
MIL by 1.7
Expected score
MIL 5.5 – 3.9 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupBrewers
+168Our fair odds−168
3.9Expected runs5.5
−0.21Power rating+0.22
5.8Runs / game5.3
5.9Allowed / game4.0
9.5Hits / game7.7
1.14Home runs / game0.86
3.6Walks drawn / game5.2
6−8Season record8−6
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIL chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+16837%+17336.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16863%−20867.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.7
WSHWashington Nationals+1.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.7 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more51%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIL
Apr 11 at MIL
last game
Apr 11 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
WSH·MIL
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
5.8
runs / game
5.3
5.9
runs allowed / game
4.0
6−8
season record
8−6
1−5
home record
5−3
5−3
away record
3−3
W2
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
5−5
9.5
hits / game
7.7
1.14
home runs / game
0.86
3.6
walks drawn / game
5.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.93
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

WSH · MIL · 18 days
Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Apr 11at MILWSH 3 − 1
Apr 10at MILWSH 7 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at WSHMIL 14 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at WSHMIL 8 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at WSHMIL 16 − 9
Jul 13, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Aug 3, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 4

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W