bayesRatings

Brewers at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final MIL 5 – MIA 2
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000122000551
MIA010000001281
Team box
MIL·MIA
5
hits
8
1
home runs
0
11
walks
1
5
strikeouts
4
129
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-3113
Connor NorbyMIA2-4001
Liam HicksMIA2-4100
Brandon LockridgeMIL1-4001
Sal FrelickMIL1-5001
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Woodruff (W)MIL7.03114
Abner Uribe (S)MIL0.20000
Sandy Alcantara (L)MIA5.04261

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
MIL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · MIL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 55%, MIA 45% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.5 – 4.1 MIA
Expected total
9.6
BrewersThe matchupMarlins
−123Our fair odds+123
5.5Expected runs4.1
+0.22Power rating−0.09
5.2Runs / game4.7
4.2Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game8.6
0.95Home runs / game0.75
5.0Walks drawn / game3.3
11−8Season record9−11
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12355%+10149.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+12345%−12154.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byMIA wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 23.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIA
Apr 17 at MIA
last game
Apr 17 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
MIL·MIA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.2
runs / game
4.7
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.7
11−8
season record
9−11
7−5
home record
7−4
4−3
away record
2−7
W3
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
8.6
0.95
home runs / game
0.75
5.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.32
errors / game
0.85

Rating Trend

MIL · MIA · 24 days
Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Apr 17at MIAMIL 7 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MILMIA 7 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at MILMIA 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at MIAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at MIAMIL 6 − 5
Jul 28, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 2
Jul 27, 2024at MILMIA 7 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at MILMIA 6 − 2

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L