bayesRatings

Marlins at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIA 5 – ATL 6
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA130000010590
ATL01200003691
Team box
MIA·ATL
9
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
11
strikeouts
7
130
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic SmithATL3-4004
Drake BaldwinATL2-4201
Jakob MarseeMIA2-3101
Matt OlsonATL1-4001
Otto LopezMIA1-3101
Connor NorbyMIA1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max MeyerMIA5.05315
Pete Fairbanks (L)MIA1.03301
Reynaldo LopezATL5.05336
Robert Suarez (W)ATL1.03101
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · MIA 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.2
MarlinsThe matchupBraves
+125Our fair odds−125
4.2Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating+0.06
4.7Runs / game5.5
4.4Allowed / game3.2
8.6Hits / game9.4
0.76Home runs / game1.24
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
9−8Season record10−7
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12545%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12555%−16161.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
MIAMiami Marlins+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Apr 13 at ATL
last game
Apr 13 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
MIA·ATL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.7
runs / game
5.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.2
9−8
season record
10−7
7−3
home record
6−4
2−5
away record
4−3
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
9.4
0.76
home runs / game
1.24
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.88
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 20 days
Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at ATLMIA 5 − 1
Aug 7, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 3

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W