bayesRatings

Marlins at Braves

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIA 10 – ATL 4
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA00033301010160
ATL000310000490
Team box
MIA·ATL
16
hits
9
2
home runs
0
3
walks
6
9
strikeouts
10
164
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Agustin RamirezMIA3-4214
Liam HicksMIA3-4003
Connor NorbyMIA2-5112
Austin RileyATL1-5102
Matt OlsonATL2-5100
Dominic SmithATL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury PerezMIA4.07322
Andrew Nardi (W)MIA1.00001
Grant HolmesATL4.03323
Aaron Bummer (L)ATL1.04302

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · MIA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
ATL by 1.0
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupBraves
+128Our fair odds−128
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.08Power rating+0.08
4.4Runs / game5.6
4.4Allowed / game2.8
8.1Hits / game9.4
0.69Home runs / game1.31
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
8−8Season record10−6
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12844%+11945.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12856%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.0
MIAMiami Marlins+1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.0 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Apr 12 at DET
last game
Apr 12 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
MIA·ATL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.4
runs / game
5.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
2.8
8−8
season record
10−6
7−3
home record
6−3
1−5
away record
4−3
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
9.4
0.69
home runs / game
1.31
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.94
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 19 days
Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at ATLMIA 5 − 1
Aug 7, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at MIAATL 7 − 0

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W