bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 12:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TOR 1 – MIL 2
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR001000000160
MIL00010010270
Team box
TOR·MIL
6
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
118
pitches thrown
108
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gary SanchezMIL2-3000
William ContrerasMIL2-4000
Andres GimenezTOR2-3100
Luis RengifoMIL0-1001
Brice TurangMIL1-4100
Joey OrtizMIL0-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick CorbinTOR5.24116
Tommy Nance (L)TOR0.21120
Brandon SproatMIL6.24116
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL0.11000
Angel Zerpa (S)MIL1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
9.1
Blue JaysThe matchupBrewers
+127Our fair odds−127
4.2Expected runs4.8
+0.07Power rating+0.20
3.9Runs / game5.2
5.4Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game1.06
3.4Walks drawn / game5.1
7−10Season record9−8
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12744%−10350.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12756%−11653.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 11.57 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIL
Apr 15 at MIL
last game
Apr 15 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
TOR·MIL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.9
runs / game
5.2
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
7−10
season record
9−8
6−6
home record
6−5
1−4
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
1.06
3.4
walks drawn / game
5.1
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
10.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.71
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

TOR · MIL · 22 days
Toronto Blue JaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Apr 15at MILMIL 2 − 1
Apr 14at MILTOR 9 − 7
Aug 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at TORMIL 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at TORMIL 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 4
Jun 11, 2024at MILTOR 3 − 0
Jun 10, 2024at MILMIL 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2023at TORTOR 3 − 1
May 31, 2023at TORMIL 4 − 2

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L