bayesRatings

Marlins at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIA 3 – ATL 6
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000030380
ATL020001306110
Team box
MIA·ATL
8
hits
11
1
home runs
3
4
walks
0
12
strikeouts
7
139
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4112
Austin RileyATL2-4111
Liam HicksMIA1-4112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Drake BaldwinATL2-4101
Mauricio DubonATL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Paddack (L)MIA4.25204
Bryce Elder (W)ATL5.24027
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
MIA +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 5 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.2
MarlinsThe matchupBraves
+127Our fair odds−127
4.2Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating+0.07
4.7Runs / game5.6
4.4Allowed / game3.3
8.6Hits / game9.4
0.72Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
9−9Season record11−7
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12744%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12756%−16862.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
MIAMiami Marlins+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 8.79 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Apr 14 at ATL
last game
Apr 14 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
MIA·ATL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.7
runs / game
5.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.3
9−9
season record
11−7
7−3
home record
7−4
2−6
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
9.4
0.72
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.83
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 21 days
Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at ATLMIA 5 − 1
Aug 7, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L