bayesRatings

Brewers at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final MIL 7 – MIA 5
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIL0003010003790
MIA0001020101582
Team box
MIL·MIA
9
hits
8
0
home runs
1
6
walks
5
10
strikeouts
9
171
pitches thrown
186
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Otto LopezMIA3-5212
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4003
Jake BauersMIL3-4300
Luis RengifoMIL2-4101
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4200
Owen CaissieMIA1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Coleman CrowMIL5.14214
Abner Uribe (W)MIL1.00021
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01002
Janson JunkMIA5.16323
Calvin Faucher (L)MIA1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
MIL +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIA 0 · MIL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, MIA 46% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.4 – 4.1 MIA
Expected total
9.5
BrewersThe matchupMarlins
−120Our fair odds+120
5.4Expected runs4.1
+0.20Power rating−0.08
5.1Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.00Home runs / game0.74
4.9Walks drawn / game3.2
10−8Season record9−10
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12054%−10350.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+12046%−11653.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byMIA wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILColeman Crow SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIA
Apr 16 vs TOR
last game
Apr 15 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
MIL·MIA
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.1
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
10−8
season record
9−10
7−5
home record
7−3
3−3
away record
2−7
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.74
4.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.33
errors / game
0.79

Rating Trend

MIL · MIA · 23 days
Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Jul 27, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MILMIA 7 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at MILMIA 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at MIAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at MIAMIL 6 − 5
Jul 28, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 2
Jul 27, 2024at MILMIA 7 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at MILMIA 6 − 2
May 22, 2024at MIAMIA 1 − 0

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L