bayesRatings

Brewers at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIL 12 – DET 4
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL03000027012161
DET000100003491
Team box
MIL·DET
16
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
5
5
strikeouts
9
172
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-5004
William ContrerasMIL2-5102
David HamiltonMIL4-5200
Matt VierlingDET1-4002
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5101
Jake BauersMIL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle HarrisonMIL3.04133
Grant Anderson (W)MIL2.01001
Keider Montero (L)DET5.25313

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +11
MIL +11
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · MIL 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 52%, DET 48% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.4 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.4
BrewersThe matchupTigers
−107Our fair odds+107
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.22Power rating+0.07
5.0Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game3.6
7.6Hits / game8.1
0.90Home runs / game0.74
5.2Walks drawn / game3.7
12−9Season record12−11
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · DET chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10752%−10751.8%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10748%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byDET wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more39%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more29%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 15 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·DET
Apr 19 at MIA
last game
Apr 20 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
MIL·DET
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
5.0
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.6
12−9
season record
12−11
7−5
home record
8−1
5−4
away record
4−10
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
8.1
0.90
home runs / game
0.74
5.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.38
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

MIL · DET · 27 days
Milwaukee BrewersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Apr 16, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at MILDET 9 − 1
Jun 9, 2024at DETDET 10 − 2
Jun 8, 2024at DETMIL 5 − 4
Jun 7, 2024at DETMIL 10 − 0
Apr 26, 2023at MILMIL 6 − 2
Apr 25, 2023at MILDET 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2023at MILDET 4 − 2
Sep 15, 2021at DETDET 4 − 1

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W