bayesRatings

Reds at Twins

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final CIN 7 – MIN 4
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CIN0001000033771
MIN1020000010493
Team box
CIN·MIN
7
hits
9
0
home runs
0
7
walks
6
14
strikeouts
5
176
pitches thrown
186
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
TJ FriedlCIN2-5003
Victor CaratiniMIN2-4002
Rece HindsCIN1-4002
Josh BellMIN1-5001
James OutmanMIN2-4100
Austin MartinMIN1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady SingerCIN6.05342
Emilio Pagan (W)CIN1.02100
Graham Ashcraft (S)CIN1.00011
Bailey OberMIN6.130410
Garrett Acton (L)MIN1.21012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CIN +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIN 3 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupTwins
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs4.4
+0.04Power rating−0.07
3.4Runs / game5.1
3.9Allowed / game4.4
6.6Hits / game7.5
1.00Home runs / game1.24
4.1Walks drawn / game4.4
13−8Season record11−10
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−10150%−10350.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10150%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIN
Apr 18 at MIN
last game
Apr 18 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
CIN·MIN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.4
runs / game
5.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
13−8
season record
11−10
6−6
home record
7−5
7−2
away record
4−5
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
6−4
6.6
hits / game
7.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.24
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

CIN · MIN · 25 days
Cincinnati RedsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Apr 18at MINCIN 5 − 4
Apr 17at MINCIN 2 − 1
Jun 19, 2025at CINMIN 12 − 5
Jun 18, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at MINCIN 11 − 1
Sep 13, 2024at MINCIN 8 − 4
Sep 20, 2023at CINMIN 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2023at CINMIN 7 − 0

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W