bayesRatings

Reds at Twins

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 7:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final CIN 2 – MIN 1
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000200000240
MIN000010000151
Team box
CIN·MIN
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
8
strikeouts
4
144
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4002
Josh BellMIN2-4000
Austin MartinMIN1-2001
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3100
Sal StewartCIN1-4100
Byron BuxtonMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Williamson (W)CIN5.13142
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001
Joe Ryan (L)MIN6.03106

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · CIN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.0
RedsThe matchupTwins
+102Our fair odds−102
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.02Power rating−0.05
3.4Runs / game5.4
4.1Allowed / game4.5
6.5Hits / game7.5
1.11Home runs / game1.37
4.4Walks drawn / game4.3
11−8Season record11−8
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10249%+14041.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10251%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIN
Apr 16 vs SF
last game
Apr 15 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
CIN·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.4
runs / game
5.4
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
11−8
season record
11−8
6−6
home record
7−3
5−2
away record
4−5
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
6.5
hits / game
7.5
1.11
home runs / game
1.37
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.47
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CIN · MIN · 23 days
Cincinnati RedsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jun 19, 2025at CINMIN 12 − 5
Jun 18, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at MINCIN 11 − 1
Sep 13, 2024at MINCIN 8 − 4
Sep 20, 2023at CINMIN 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2023at CINMIN 7 − 0
Sep 18, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2021at CINCIN 6 − 5

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W