bayesRatings

Giants at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final SF 1 – CIN 2
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000010000170
CIN00110000231
Team box
SF·CIN
7
hits
3
1
home runs
2
1
walks
5
5
strikeouts
9
145
pitches thrown
111
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF2-4111
Spencer SteerCIN1-3111
Sal StewartCIN1-3111
Luis ArraezSF3-4000
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4000
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (L)SF5.02246
Brady Singer (W)CIN6.06101
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, CIN 53% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.2 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.0
GiantsThe matchupReds
+115Our fair odds−115
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating+0.01
3.2Runs / game3.4
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game6.8
0.50Home runs / game0.94
2.1Walks drawn / game4.3
6−10Season record9−7
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CIN chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11547%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11553%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CIN
Apr 12 at BAL
last game
Apr 12 vs LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
SF·CIN
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.2
runs / game
3.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
6−10
season record
9−7
3−7
home record
4−5
3−3
away record
5−2
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
6.8
0.50
home runs / game
0.94
2.1
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.62
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · CIN · 20 days
San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Apr 9, 2025at SFSF 8 − 6
Apr 8, 2025at SFCIN 1 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at SFCIN 2 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at CINSF 6 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Mar 27, 2025at CINSF 6 − 4
Aug 4, 2024at CINSF 8 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at CINSF 3 − 0
May 12, 2024at SFSF 6 − 5

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W