bayesRatings

Giants at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final SF 3 – CIN 8
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF020000100390
CIN430100008100
Team box
SF·CIN
9
hits
10
0
home runs
4
2
walks
6
6
strikeouts
10
139
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-4226
Eugenio SuarezCIN3-4111
Daniel SusacSF2-4002
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4211
Spencer SteerCIN2-4000
Rafael DeversSF2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)SF4.08856
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN6.25314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: CIN 6 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, CIN 54% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.1 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
7.9
GiantsThe matchupReds
+117Our fair odds−117
3.8Expected runs4.1
−0.04Power rating+0.02
3.1Runs / game3.3
4.4Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game6.6
0.53Home runs / game1.00
2.0Walks drawn / game4.4
6−11Season record10−7
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CIN chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11746%−11252.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11754%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CIN
Apr 14 at CIN
last game
Apr 14 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SF·CIN
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.1
runs / game
3.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
6−11
season record
10−7
3−7
home record
5−5
3−4
away record
5−2
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
6.6
0.53
home runs / game
1.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.59
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SF · CIN · 21 days
San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Apr 14at CINCIN 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at SFSF 8 − 6
Apr 8, 2025at SFCIN 1 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at SFCIN 2 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at CINSF 6 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Mar 27, 2025at CINSF 6 − 4
Aug 4, 2024at CINSF 8 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at CINSF 3 − 0

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W