bayesRatings

Giants at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final SF 3 – CIN 0
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000300360
CIN000000000011
Team box
SF·CIN
6
hits
1
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
12
140
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF3-4101
Matt ChapmanSF1-4101
Casey SchmittSF1-4001
P.J. HigginsCIN1-2000
Willy AdamesSF1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (W)SF6.01026
Erik Miller (S)SF1.00013
Chase BurnsCIN6.02014
Brock Burke (L)CIN0.22002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · SF 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, CIN 55% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.2 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
8.0
GiantsThe matchupReds
+120Our fair odds−120
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.05Power rating+0.03
3.1Runs / game3.6
4.6Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game6.8
0.50Home runs / game1.17
2.0Walks drawn / game4.4
6−12Season record11−7
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CIN chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12045%+10548.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12055%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CIN
Apr 15 at CIN
last game
Apr 15 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
SF·CIN
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.1
runs / game
3.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
6−12
season record
11−7
3−7
home record
6−5
3−5
away record
5−2
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
6.8
0.50
home runs / game
1.17
2.0
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.56
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · CIN · 22 days
San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 6−4
Apr 15at CINCIN 8 − 3
Apr 14at CINCIN 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at SFSF 8 − 6
Apr 8, 2025at SFCIN 1 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at SFCIN 2 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at CINSF 6 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Mar 27, 2025at CINSF 6 − 4
Aug 4, 2024at CINSF 8 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 4

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W