bayesRatings

Reds at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final CIN 5 – MIN 4
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0101001115111
MIN201010000490
Team box
CIN·MIN
11
hits
9
0
home runs
0
2
walks
5
7
strikeouts
12
178
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN1-3002
Ryan JeffersMIN1-5002
Luke KeaschallMIN2-5001
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4200
Dane MyersCIN1-1001
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN4.26333
Kyle Nicolas (W)CIN1.00003
Tony Santillan (S)CIN1.00002
Taj BradleyMIN6.05225
Cole Sands (L)MIN1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 2 · CIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
8.8
RedsThe matchupTwins
+100Our fair odds−100
4.5Expected runs4.4
+0.03Power rating−0.06
3.3Runs / game5.2
3.9Allowed / game4.4
6.3Hits / game7.4
1.05Home runs / game1.30
4.2Walks drawn / game4.3
12−8Season record11−9
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+10947.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10050%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIN
Apr 17 at MIN
last game
Apr 17 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
CIN·MIN
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.3
runs / game
5.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
12−8
season record
11−9
6−6
home record
7−4
6−2
away record
4−5
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
6.3
hits / game
7.4
1.05
home runs / game
1.30
4.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.45
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CIN · MIN · 24 days
Cincinnati RedsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Apr 17at MINCIN 2 − 1
Jun 19, 2025at CINMIN 12 − 5
Jun 18, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at MINCIN 11 − 1
Sep 13, 2024at MINCIN 8 − 4
Sep 20, 2023at CINMIN 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2023at CINMIN 7 − 0
Sep 18, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 3

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W