bayesRatings

Reds at Rays

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CIN 6 – TB 1
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN2010021006100
TB100000000160
Team box
CIN·TB
10
hits
6
1
home runs
0
0
walks
5
8
strikeouts
5
142
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-4212
Rece HindsCIN1-4002
Matt McLainCIN2-5100
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-5100
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN6.05123
Jesse Scholtens (L)TB5.28506

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · CIN 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, TB 51% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.4
RedsThe matchupRays
+106Our fair odds−106
4.1Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating+0.01
3.5Runs / game4.9
3.9Allowed / game5.2
6.6Hits / game9.1
0.95Home runs / game0.86
4.2Walks drawn / game3.3
14−8Season record12−9
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10649%+10149.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10651%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more37%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TBJesse Scholtens RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 9.24 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TB
Apr 19 at MIN
last game
Apr 19 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
CIN·TB
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.5
runs / game
4.9
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.2
14−8
season record
12−9
6−6
home record
4−2
8−2
away record
8−7
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
6.6
hits / game
9.1
0.95
home runs / game
0.86
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.50
errors / game
0.95

Rating Trend

CIN · TB · 26 days
Cincinnati RedsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Jul 27, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 28, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Jul 27, 2024at TBTB 4 − 0
Jul 26, 2024at TBCIN 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at CINTB 8 − 0
Apr 18, 2023at CINTB 10 − 0
Apr 17, 2023at CINCIN 8 − 1
Jul 10, 2022at CINCIN 10 − 5

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L