bayesRatings

Rays at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TB 8 – CHW 5
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB3010022008122
CHW003000002551
Team box
TB·CHW
12
hits
5
0
home runs
2
6
walks
7
7
strikeouts
6
153
pitches thrown
159
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Everson PereiraCHW1-4113
Ben WilliamsonTB2-3203
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3212
Ryan ViladeTB3-5301
Yandy DiazTB2-5001
Nick FortesTB1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.02244
Bryan Baker (S)TB0.10000
Noah Schultz (L)CHW4.13344

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, CHW 45% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−121Our fair odds+121
4.5Expected runs4.0
−0.00Power rating−0.29
4.7Runs / game3.1
5.3Allowed / game4.9
9.0Hits / game6.1
0.80Home runs / game0.75
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
8−7Season record6−10
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CHW chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12155%−13156.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+12145%+10947.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCHW wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHWNoah Schultz SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CHW
Apr 12 vs NYY
last game
Apr 12 at KC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
TB·CHW
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.7
runs / game
3.1
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
8−7
season record
6−10
4−2
home record
3−3
4−5
away record
3−7
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
6.1
0.80
home runs / game
0.75
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
1.13
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

TB · CHW · 20 days
Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Sep 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 9, 2025at CHWTB 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at TBCHW 11 − 9
Jul 22, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at TBCHW 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at TBCHW 4 − 1
May 7, 2024at TBTB 5 − 1
May 6, 2024at TBTB 8 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W