bayesRatings

Rays at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final TB 1 – PIT 5
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000001000150
PIT010002025110
Team box
TB·PIT
5
hits
11
0
home runs
1
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT3-5002
Oneil CruzPIT1-4112
Spencer HorwitzPIT3-3001
Marcell OzunaPIT3-4100
Junior CamineroTB1-4001
Konnor GriffinPIT1-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (L)TB5.18233
Bubba Chandler (W)PIT6.03113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 4 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
7.9
RaysThe matchupPirates
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating−0.01
5.1Runs / game5.0
5.1Allowed / game4.0
9.2Hits / game8.6
0.89Home runs / game1.11
3.6Walks drawn / game4.2
11−7Season record11−8
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10748%+10149.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10752%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more26%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PIT
Apr 16 at CHW
last game
Apr 16 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
TB·PIT
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.1
runs / game
5.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
11−7
season record
11−8
4−2
home record
6−4
7−5
away record
5−4
W6
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
9.2
hits / game
8.6
0.89
home runs / game
1.11
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
1.06
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

TB · PIT · 23 days
Tampa Bay RaysPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 2−8
Apr 2, 2025at TBPIT 4 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at TBTB 7 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at TBTB 6 − 1
Jun 23, 2024at PITTB 3 − 1
Jun 22, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at PITTB 10 − 3
May 4, 2023at TBTB 3 − 2
May 3, 2023at TBTB 8 − 1
May 2, 2023at TBTB 4 − 1
Jun 26, 2022at TBTB 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L