bayesRatings

Nationals at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final WSH 5 – PIT 4
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH301100000592
PIT100210000480
Team box
WSH·PIT
9
hits
8
1
home runs
2
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
7
157
pitches thrown
167
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH3-4112
Brandon LowePIT1-2211
Joey BartPIT1-3111
Marcell OzunaPIT2-4001
Brady HouseWSH2-4101
Konnor GriffinPIT2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
PJ PoulinWSH1.02101
Mitchell Parker (W)WSH2.02005
Gus Varland (S)WSH1.01011
Mitch Keller (L)PIT4.06543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 42%, PIT 58% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
PIT by 1.0
Expected score
PIT 4.8 – 3.8 WSH
Expected total
8.7
NationalsThe matchupPirates
+136Our fair odds−136
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.21Power rating−0.00
5.9Runs / game5.1
6.5Allowed / game3.9
9.6Hits / game8.5
1.19Home runs / game1.12
3.4Walks drawn / game4.4
7−9Season record10−6
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13642%+15239.6%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−13658%−18364.6%———
SpreadPIT by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more45%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Apr 13 at PIT
last game
Apr 13 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
WSH·PIT
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.9
runs / game
5.1
6.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
7−9
season record
10−6
1−5
home record
5−2
6−4
away record
5−4
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
9.6
hits / game
8.5
1.19
home runs / game
1.12
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.88
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 20 days
Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Apr 13at PITPIT 16 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at PITWSH 3 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Sep 8, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 3
Sep 7, 2024at PITWSH 8 − 6

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W