bayesRatings

Pirates at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PIT 4 – CHC 3
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
PIT012000000014111
CHC00001010100393
Team box
PIT·CHC
11
hits
9
0
home runs
0
6
walks
7
12
strikeouts
14
187
pitches thrown
197
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT4-5100
Alex BregmanCHC2-6001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5001
Nick YorkePIT3-4000
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4101
Nico HoernerCHC1-6001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton AshcraftPIT5.04119
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT2.00032
Edward CabreraCHC5.08334
Caleb Thielbar (L)CHC1.00013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
PIT +3
1234567891011
largest lead: CHC 0 · PIT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 3.3 PIT
Expected total
7.8
PiratesThe matchupCubs
+127Our fair odds−127
3.3Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.12
4.3Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game3.5
7.8Hits / game7.2
1.00Home runs / game1.00
4.2Walks drawn / game4.5
8−5Season record6−7
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12744%+11945.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12756%−14258.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 18%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 12%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHC
Apr 10 at CHC
last game
Apr 10 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
PIT·CHC
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.3
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.5
8−5
season record
6−7
4−2
home record
3−4
4−3
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
4.2
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.46
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

PIT · CHC · 17 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Apr 10at CHCPIT 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at PITCHC 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 1
Sep 15, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CHCPIT 3 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at CHCPIT 2 − 1

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W