bayesRatings

Pirates at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PIT 2 – CHC 0
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000200230
CHC000000000060
Team box
PIT·CHC
3
hits
6
1
home runs
0
1
walks
7
11
strikeouts
6
147
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4112
Ian HappCHC2-3000
Carson KellyCHC1-1000
Alex BregmanCHC1-4000
Nico HoernerCHC1-4000
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT5.16032
Mason Montgomery (W)PIT0.20012
Dennis Santana (S)PIT1.00002
Shota ImanagaCHC6.00019
Caleb Thielbar (L)CHC0.23200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · PIT 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 3.4 PIT
Expected total
7.9
PiratesThe matchupCubs
+130Our fair odds−130
3.4Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating+0.14
4.5Runs / game4.7
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.2
1.00Home runs / game1.08
4.4Walks drawn / game4.2
7−5Season record6−6
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13043%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13057%−16161.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 18%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 12%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHC
Apr 8 vs SD
last game
Apr 8 at TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
PIT·CHC
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.7
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
7−5
season record
6−6
4−2
home record
3−3
3−3
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.08
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.50
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

PIT · CHC · 16 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 8−2
Sep 17, 2025at PITCHC 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 1
Sep 15, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CHCPIT 3 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at CHCPIT 2 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 2

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L