bayesRatings

Padres at Pirates

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final SD 5 – PIT 0
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0001210105111
PIT000000000070
Team box
SD·PIT
11
hits
7
0
home runs
0
5
walks
5
9
strikeouts
6
161
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick CastellanosSD2-4001
Jake CronenworthSD2-3001
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-3000
Manny MachadoSD1-4101
Xander BogaertsSD2-4000
Ramon LaureanoSD1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
German Marquez (W)SD5.06014
Bubba Chandler (L)PIT4.15344

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 51%, PIT 49% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 3.8 – 3.5 PIT
Expected total
7.3
PadresThe matchupPirates
−103Our fair odds+103
3.8Expected runs3.5
+0.09Power rating−0.02
3.6Runs / game5.0
4.3Allowed / game3.8
6.8Hits / game8.2
0.56Home runs / game1.33
3.3Walks drawn / game4.7
4−5Season record6−3
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · PIT chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10351%+11945.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10349%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.3
Over7.3our total————
Under7.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 18%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%
← SD wins byPIT wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.3 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 9.524%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 7 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·PIT
Apr 5 at BOS
last game
Apr 5 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SD·PIT
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.6
runs / game
5.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
4−5
season record
6−3
2−4
home record
3−0
2−1
away record
3−3
W2
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
6−4
6.8
hits / game
8.2
0.56
home runs / game
1.33
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.3
0.33
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

SD · PIT · 12 days
San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 1−9
Jun 1, 2025at SDSD 6 − 4
May 31, 2025at SDPIT 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at SDSD 3 − 2
May 4, 2025at PITSD 4 − 0
May 3, 2025at PITSD 2 − 1
May 2, 2025at PITSD 9 − 4
Aug 14, 2024at SDSD 8 − 2
Aug 13, 2024at SDSD 3 − 0
Aug 12, 2024at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at PITSD 7 − 6

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L