bayesRatings

Nationals at Pirates

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final WSH 5 – PIT 16
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH100000400581
PIT04100100116160
Team box
WSH·PIT
8
hits
16
2
home runs
2
2
walks
7
9
strikeouts
9
184
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT3-5215
Bryan ReynoldsPIT3-4104
Oneil CruzPIT2-3303
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-4211
Jacob YoungWSH1-4112
CJ AbramsWSH1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (L)WSH1.13432
Paul Skenes (W)PIT6.01116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +14
WSH +14
123456789
largest lead: PIT 14 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, PIT 56% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
PIT by 0.8
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 3.8 WSH
Expected total
8.3
NationalsThe matchupPirates
+129Our fair odds−129
3.8Expected runs4.6
−0.18Power rating−0.02
5.9Runs / game4.4
5.9Allowed / game3.9
9.7Hits / game8.0
1.13Home runs / game1.07
3.5Walks drawn / game4.2
7−8Season record9−6
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12944%+18135.6%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−12956%−21868.5%———
SpreadPIT by 0.8
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more43%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Apr 12 at MIL
last game
Apr 12 at CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
WSH·PIT
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.9
runs / game
4.4
5.9
runs allowed / game
3.9
7−8
season record
9−6
1−5
home record
4−2
6−3
away record
5−4
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
9.7
hits / game
8.0
1.13
home runs / game
1.07
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.87
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 19 days
Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at PITWSH 3 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Sep 8, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 3
Sep 7, 2024at PITWSH 8 − 6
Sep 7, 2024at PITWSH 5 − 3

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W