bayesRatings

Nationals at Pirates

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final WSH 0 – PIT 2
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000000030
PIT20000000250
Team box
WSH·PIT
3
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-4100
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4001
Nick GonzalesPIT1-4001
Curtis MeadWSH1-4000
CJ AbramsWSH1-1000
Jorbit VivasWSH1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.04235
Mason MontgomeryPIT1.01001
Carmen Mlodzinski (W)PIT6.02025
Dennis Santana (S)PIT1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 2 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, PIT 57% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
PIT by 1.0
Expected score
PIT 4.9 – 3.9 WSH
Expected total
8.8
NationalsThe matchupPirates
+133Our fair odds−133
3.9Expected runs4.9
−0.20Power rating−0.01
5.8Runs / game5.1
6.4Allowed / game4.0
9.5Hits / game8.5
1.18Home runs / game1.18
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
8−9Season record10−7
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13343%+14640.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−13357%−17563.6%———
SpreadPIT by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more45%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PITMason Montgomery RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Apr 14 at PIT
last game
Apr 14 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
WSH·PIT
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.8
runs / game
5.1
6.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
8−9
season record
10−7
1−5
home record
5−3
7−4
away record
5−4
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
9.5
hits / game
8.5
1.18
home runs / game
1.18
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.94
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 21 days
Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Apr 14at PITWSH 5 − 4
Apr 13at PITPIT 16 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at PITWSH 3 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Sep 8, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 3

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs BAL3 − 2W