bayesRatings

Rays at White Sox

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TB 5 – CHW 3
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000100103590
CHW001001010381
Team box
TB·CHW
9
hits
8
1
home runs
2
7
walks
4
10
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
222
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Everson PereiraCHW2-3111
Junior CamineroTB2-5111
Miguel VargasCHW1-5111
Taylor WallsTB1-4002
Richie PalaciosTB2-2001
Edgar QueroCHW1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven MatzTB5.16214
Kevin Kelly (W)TB2.01112
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00010
Jordan LeasureCHW1.10010
Seranthony Dominguez (L)CHW0.12311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 57%, CHW 43% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.7
RaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−130Our fair odds+130
4.8Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating−0.35
5.1Runs / game3.2
5.2Allowed / game5.3
9.2Hits / game6.1
0.88Home runs / game0.78
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
10−7Season record6−12
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CHW chance
Our model fair56.6%43.4%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−13057%−13156.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+13043%+10947.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCHW wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHWJordan Leasure RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CHW
Apr 15 at CHW
last game
Apr 15 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
TB·CHW
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.35
5.1
runs / game
3.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.3
10−7
season record
6−12
4−2
home record
3−5
6−5
away record
3−7
W5
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
9.2
hits / game
6.1
0.88
home runs / game
0.78
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
1.12
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

TB · CHW · 22 days
Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Apr 15at CHWTB 8 − 3
Apr 14at CHWTB 8 − 5
Sep 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 9, 2025at CHWTB 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at TBCHW 11 − 9
Jul 22, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at TBCHW 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at TBCHW 4 − 1
May 7, 2024at TBTB 5 − 1

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W