bayesRatings

Rays at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TB 8 – CHW 3
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB001021400890
CHW000000003370
Team box
TB·CHW
9
hits
7
3
home runs
0
5
walks
5
5
strikeouts
6
150
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonny DeLucaTB1-1113
Junior CamineroTB1-4212
Jake FraleyTB1-3111
Reese McGuireCHW2-4001
Yandy DiazTB1-2101
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cole SulserTB2.03011
Jesse Scholtens (W)TB5.01023
Sean Burke (L)CHW5.17432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +8
TB +8
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · TB 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, CHW 45% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−125Our fair odds+125
4.6Expected runs3.9
+0.01Power rating−0.31
4.9Runs / game3.2
5.3Allowed / game5.1
9.2Hits / game6.1
0.75Home runs / game0.82
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
9−7Season record6−11
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CHW chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12555%−11653.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+12545%−10751.8%———
SpreadTB by 0.7
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.7our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.7 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCHW wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more42%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBCole Sulser RP · last 2 starts: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CHW
Apr 14 at CHW
last game
Apr 14 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
TB·CHW
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
4.9
runs / game
3.2
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
9−7
season record
6−11
4−2
home record
3−4
5−5
away record
3−7
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
9.2
hits / game
6.1
0.75
home runs / game
0.82
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
1.19
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

TB · CHW · 21 days
Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Apr 14at CHWTB 8 − 5
Sep 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 9, 2025at CHWTB 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at TBCHW 11 − 9
Jul 22, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at TBCHW 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at TBCHW 4 − 1
May 7, 2024at TBTB 5 − 1
May 6, 2024at TBTB 8 − 2

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W