bayesRatings

Nationals at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final WSH 8 – PIT 7
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
WSH00004120018100
PIT00004200107154
Team box
WSH·PIT
10
hits
15
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
10
strikeouts
11
173
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
4
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4113
Oneil CruzPIT2-5101
Brandon LowePIT2-5001
Jake MangumPIT3-5200
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4001
Konnor GriffinPIT2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster GriffinWSH5.18417
Clayton Beeter (W)WSH1.01121
Orlando Ribalta (S)WSH1.01001
Braxton AshcraftPIT5.25227
Dennis Santana (L)PIT1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
WSH +4
12345678910
largest lead: PIT 1 · WSH 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 42%, PIT 58% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
PIT by 1.0
Expected score
PIT 4.8 – 3.8 WSH
Expected total
8.5
NationalsThe matchupPirates
+137Our fair odds−137
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.21Power rating−0.00
5.5Runs / game4.9
6.1Allowed / game3.8
9.2Hits / game8.3
1.11Home runs / game1.11
3.4Walks drawn / game4.3
8−10Season record11−7
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13742%+12943.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−13758%−16161.7%———
SpreadPIT by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more44%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Apr 15 at PIT
last game
Apr 15 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
WSH·PIT
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.5
runs / game
4.9
6.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
8−10
season record
11−7
1−5
home record
6−3
7−5
away record
5−4
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
9.2
hits / game
8.3
1.11
home runs / game
1.11
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.89
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 22 days
Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Apr 15at PITPIT 2 − 0
Apr 14at PITWSH 5 − 4
Apr 13at PITPIT 16 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at PITWSH 3 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W
Apr 6vs SD0 − 5L
Apr 5vs BAL8 − 2W