bayesRatings

Rays at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final TB 3 – PIT 6
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000020001361
PIT100031016120
Team box
TB·PIT
6
hits
12
1
home runs
2
0
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
150
pitches thrown
109
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4003
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-2111
Nick YorkePIT1-4111
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4101
Hunter FeducciaTB1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (L)TB4.18405
Mitch Keller (W)PIT7.05205

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 4 · TB 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.2 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
8.0
RaysThe matchupPirates
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.01
5.0Runs / game5.1
5.2Allowed / game4.0
9.2Hits / game8.7
0.85Home runs / game1.14
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
12−8Season record12−9
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi52.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10748%−11252.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10752%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 13 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PIT
Apr 18 at PIT
last game
Apr 18 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
TB·PIT
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.0
runs / game
5.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
12−8
season record
12−9
4−2
home record
7−5
8−6
away record
5−4
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.2
hits / game
8.7
0.85
home runs / game
1.14
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.95
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

TB · PIT · 25 days
Tampa Bay RaysPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Apr 18at PITTB 8 − 7
Apr 17at PITPIT 5 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at TBPIT 4 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at TBTB 7 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at TBTB 6 − 1
Jun 23, 2024at PITTB 3 − 1
Jun 22, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at PITTB 10 − 3
May 4, 2023at TBTB 3 − 2
May 3, 2023at TBTB 8 − 1

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L