bayesRatings

Rays at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 2:30 PM CT · PNC Park · Final TB 8 – PIT 7
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910111213THE
TB00005000001028150
PIT2002000100101772
Team box
TB·PIT
15
hits
7
1
home runs
2
4
walks
8
12
strikeouts
14
213
pitches thrown
219
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB2-5113
Marcell OzunaPIT2-6112
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-3212
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4202
Konnor GriffinPIT1-6002
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew RasmussenTB3.22423
Griffin Jax (W)TB1.00012
Yoendrys Gomez (S)TB1.01011
Paul SkenesPIT4.03005
Yohan Ramirez (L)PIT3.04121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
TB +3
12345678910111213
largest lead: PIT 3 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupPirates
+108Our fair odds−108
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.01Power rating−0.00
4.8Runs / game5.0
5.1Allowed / game3.9
8.9Hits / game8.8
0.84Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game4.2
11−8Season record12−8
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10848%+12444.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10852%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PIT
Apr 17 at PIT
last game
Apr 17 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
TB·PIT
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.8
runs / game
5.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
11−8
season record
12−8
4−2
home record
7−4
7−6
away record
5−4
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
8.8
0.84
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
1.00
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

TB · PIT · 24 days
Tampa Bay RaysPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Apr 17at PITPIT 5 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at TBPIT 4 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at TBTB 7 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at TBTB 6 − 1
Jun 23, 2024at PITTB 3 − 1
Jun 22, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at PITTB 10 − 3
May 4, 2023at TBTB 3 − 2
May 3, 2023at TBTB 8 − 1
May 2, 2023at TBTB 4 − 1

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs SD2 − 8L
Apr 7vs SD7 − 1W