bayesRatings

Reds at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 12:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CIN 1 – TB 6
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000010000151
TB03101010690
Team box
CIN·TB
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
4
131
pitches thrown
108
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB1-4112
Yandy DiazTB3-4101
Ryan ViladeTB2-2101
Ben WilliamsonTB1-4101
Chandler SimpsonTB1-3001
TJ FriedlCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Williamson (L)CIN4.17533
Nick Martinez (W)TB8.05116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, TB 50% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.3 – 4.2 TB
Expected total
8.6
RedsThe matchupRays
−100Our fair odds+100
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.8
3.9Allowed / game5.5
6.9Hits / game8.9
1.12Home runs / game0.83
4.3Walks drawn / game3.6
16−8Season record12−11
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−10050%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10050%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTB wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TB
Apr 21 at TB
last game
Apr 21 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
CIN·TB
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.8
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.5
16−8
season record
12−11
6−6
home record
4−4
10−2
away record
8−7
W5
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
6−4
6.9
hits / game
8.9
1.12
home runs / game
0.83
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.46
errors / game
0.87

Rating Trend

CIN · TB · 28 days
Cincinnati RedsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Apr 21at TBCIN 12 − 6
Apr 20at TBCIN 6 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 28, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Jul 27, 2024at TBTB 4 − 0
Jul 26, 2024at TBCIN 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at CINTB 8 − 0
Apr 18, 2023at CINTB 10 − 0

CIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W