bayesRatings

Reds at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CIN 12 – TB 6
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN22001420112100
TB000002004680
Team box
CIN·TB
10
hits
8
5
home runs
1
10
walks
7
11
strikeouts
12
184
pitches thrown
201
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN3-6325
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3213
Sal StewartCIN2-4003
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-3211
Dane MyersCIN1-3411
Spencer SteerCIN1-3111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.24228
Steven Matz (L)TB3.04444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
CIN +10
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · CIN 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, TB 51% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.4
RedsThe matchupRays
+103Our fair odds−103
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating−0.00
3.7Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game5.2
6.7Hits / game9.0
0.96Home runs / game0.82
4.0Walks drawn / game3.4
15−8Season record12−10
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10349%−11653.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10351%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TB
Apr 20 at TB
last game
Apr 20 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
CIN·TB
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
3.7
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
15−8
season record
12−10
6−6
home record
4−3
9−2
away record
8−7
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
7−3
6.7
hits / game
9.0
0.96
home runs / game
0.82
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

CIN · TB · 27 days
Cincinnati RedsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Apr 20at TBCIN 6 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 28, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Jul 27, 2024at TBTB 4 − 0
Jul 26, 2024at TBCIN 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at CINTB 8 − 0
Apr 18, 2023at CINTB 10 − 0
Apr 17, 2023at CINCIN 8 − 1

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W
Apr 12vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W