bayesRatings

Astros at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final HOU 1 – BOS 3
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0010000001110
BOS003000003100
Team box
HOU·BOS
11
hits
10
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
6
strikeouts
4
120
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS1-4113
Carlos CorreaHOU3-5111
Roman AnthonyBOS3-4000
Trevor StoryBOS2-4000
Isaac ParedesHOU2-3000
Yainer DiazHOU2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (L)HOU6.08313
Jake Bennett (W)BOS5.05123
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, BOS 54% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.6 – 4.3 HOU
Expected total
8.9
AstrosThe matchupRed Sox
+119Our fair odds−119
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.05Power rating+0.04
5.2Runs / game4.0
6.1Allowed / game4.5
9.1Hits / game7.7
1.25Home runs / game0.68
3.9Walks drawn / game3.3
12−20Season record12−19
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11946%+10149.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11954%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BOS
Apr 30 at BAL
last game
Apr 29 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
HOU·BOS
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.0
6.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
12−20
season record
12−19
8−8
home record
5−8
4−12
away record
7−11
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
9.1
hits / game
7.7
1.25
home runs / game
0.68
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.34
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

HOU · BOS · 37 days
Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Apr 1at HOUHOU 6 − 4
Mar 31at HOUHOU 9 − 2
Mar 30at HOUHOU 8 − 1
Aug 13, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at HOUBOS 14 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 6
Aug 3, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Aug 2, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at HOUBOS 4 − 1

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W