bayesRatings

Astros at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final HOU 5 – CLE 8
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0000301015100
CLE110000068111
Team box
HOU·CLE
10
hits
11
0
home runs
1
3
walks
8
5
strikeouts
7
164
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-5003
Angel MartinezCLE2-4211
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4103
Kyle ManzardoCLE2-4002
Carlos CorreaHOU2-4001
Brice MatthewsHOU2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan WeissHOU3.15244
Enyel De Los Santos (L)HOU0.12310
Parker MessickCLE5.06314
Peyton Pallette (W)CLE1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 4 · HOU 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.0
AstrosThe matchupGuardians
+119Our fair odds−119
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating+0.06
5.4Runs / game4.0
5.9Allowed / game4.3
8.9Hits / game7.3
1.25Home runs / game1.04
4.5Walks drawn / game3.8
9−15Season record13−11
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11946%+12943.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11954%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOURyan Weiss RP · last 1 start: 3.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 3 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CLE
Apr 20 at CLE
last game
Apr 20 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
HOU·CLE
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.4
runs / game
4.0
5.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
9−15
season record
13−11
7−6
home record
7−4
2−9
away record
6−7
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
7.3
1.25
home runs / game
1.04
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.33
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

HOU · CLE · 27 days
Houston AstrosCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Apr 20at CLEHOU 9 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at HOUCLE 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at HOUCLE 10 − 6
Jul 7, 2025at HOUCLE 7 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CLEHOU 5 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at CLEHOU 4 − 2
Sep 28, 2024at CLEHOU 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2024at CLEHOU 5 − 2
May 2, 2024at HOUHOU 8 − 2

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W