bayesRatings

Astros at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final HOU 1 – SEA 6
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000010000150
SEA11200200680
Team box
HOU·SEA
5
hits
8
1
home runs
0
1
walks
9
8
strikeouts
7
160
pitches thrown
100
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke RaleySEA3-5102
Randy ArozarenaSEA3-4201
Yainer DiazHOU1-3111
Jose AltuveHOU3-4000
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4001
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cody Bolton (L)HOU1.01241
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA7.04117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
HOU +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 5 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.7
AstrosThe matchupMariners
+118Our fair odds−118
4.2Expected runs4.5
+0.01Power rating+0.08
6.1Runs / game3.8
6.3Allowed / game3.7
9.8Hits / game6.3
1.20Home runs / game0.93
5.0Walks drawn / game4.4
6−9Season record6−9
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11846%+15239.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11854%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCody Bolton SP · last 1 start: 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SEA
Apr 11 at SEA
last game
Apr 11 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
HOU·SEA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
6.1
runs / game
3.8
6.3
runs allowed / game
3.7
6−9
season record
6−9
5−2
home record
5−4
1−7
away record
1−5
L6
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
9.8
hits / game
6.3
1.20
home runs / game
0.93
5.0
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.1
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.33
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

HOU · SEA · 18 days
Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at SEAHOU 11 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 1
May 25, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 3
May 24, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L
Apr 10at SEA6 − 9L
Apr 8at COL1 − 9L
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L