bayesRatings

Astros at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final HOU 1 – COL 9
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU010000000180
COL150101019100
Team box
HOU·COL
8
hits
10
0
home runs
1
2
walks
9
6
strikeouts
7
175
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edouard JulienCOL2-4202
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-2311
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4101
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-5001
Mickey MoniakCOL1-3001
Tyler FreemanCOL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristian JavierHOU1.03101
AJ Blubaugh (L)HOU1.04530
Michael Lorenzen (W)COL5.27124
Zach Agnos (S)COL3.11002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
HOU +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 8 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 64%, COL 36% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
HOU by 2.2
Expected score
HOU 6.5 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
10.8
AstrosThe matchupRockies
−181Our fair odds+181
6.5Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.65
6.5Runs / game4.0
5.8Allowed / game3.8
9.5Hits / game8.1
1.33Home runs / game1.00
5.4Walks drawn / game2.2
6−6Season record5−6
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · COL chance
Our model fair64.4%35.6%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−18164%−13757.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+18136%+11446.7%———
SpreadHOU by 2.2
HOUHouston Astros−2.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 2.2 expected
Houston Astros by 18 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 17 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCOL wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more54%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 10.38 ERA, 7 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·COL
Apr 7 at COL
last game
Apr 7 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
HOU·COL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
6.5
runs / game
4.0
5.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
6−6
season record
5−6
5−2
home record
3−2
1−4
away record
2−4
L3
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.5
hits / game
8.1
1.33
home runs / game
1.00
5.4
walks drawn / game
2.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.33
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

HOU · COL · 14 days
Houston AstrosColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Apr 7at COLCOL 5 − 1
Apr 6at COLCOL 9 − 7
Aug 28, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at HOUCOL 6 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at COLHOU 5 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at COLHOU 6 − 5
Jun 26, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 2

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L