bayesRatings

Astros at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final HOU 1 – COL 5
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU010000000130
COL010200205101
Team box
HOU·COL
3
hits
10
1
home runs
2
1
walks
2
8
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
107
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willi CastroCOL3-4113
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4112
Christian WalkerHOU1-4111
TJ RumfieldCOL2-3100
Brett SullivanCOL1-3000
Edouard JulienCOL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (L)HOU5.18313
Kyle Freeland (W)COL6.13115
Antonio Senzatela (S)COL2.20003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 4 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 66%, COL 34% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
HOU by 2.4
Expected score
HOU 6.8 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
11.1
AstrosThe matchupRockies
−192Our fair odds+192
6.8Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating−0.69
7.0Runs / game3.9
5.8Allowed / game4.1
10.1Hits / game7.9
1.36Home runs / game0.90
5.8Walks drawn / game2.2
6−5Season record4−6
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · COL chance
Our model fair65.7%34.3%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−19266%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+19234%+14041.7%———
SpreadHOU by 2.4
HOUHouston Astros−2.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 2.4 expected
Houston Astros by 19 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 18 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 17 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCOL wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more56%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more46%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·COL
Apr 6 at COL
last game
Apr 6 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
HOU·COL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.69
7.0
runs / game
3.9
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
6−5
season record
4−6
5−2
home record
2−2
1−3
away record
2−4
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
10.1
hits / game
7.9
1.36
home runs / game
0.90
5.8
walks drawn / game
2.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
10.8
10.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.36
errors / game
0.20

Rating Trend

HOU · COL · 13 days
Houston AstrosColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Apr 6at COLCOL 9 − 7
Aug 28, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at HOUCOL 6 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at COLHOU 5 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at COLHOU 6 − 5
Jun 26, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at COLHOU 8 − 2

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L