bayesRatings

Astros at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final HOU 7 – COL 9
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU2001011207132
COL000081009120
Team box
HOU·COL
13
hits
12
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
3
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
142
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Troy JohnstonCOL3-5212
Cam SmithHOU2-4211
Edouard JulienCOL2-5102
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4102
Jose AltuveHOU3-5201
Willi CastroCOL2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cody BoltonHOU4.13225
Ryan Weiss (L)HOU2.28624
Ryan Feltner (W)COL5.17421
Juan Mejia (S)COL1.20011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
HOU +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 5 · HOU 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 67%, COL 33% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
HOU by 2.5
Expected score
HOU 6.8 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
11.0
AstrosThe matchupRockies
−201Our fair odds+201
6.8Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.72
7.0Runs / game3.3
5.5Allowed / game3.8
9.8Hits / game7.4
1.40Home runs / game0.89
6.1Walks drawn / game2.0
6−4Season record3−6
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · COL chance
Our model fair66.8%33.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−20167%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+20133%+12444.7%———
SpreadHOU by 2.5
HOUHouston Astros−2.5our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 2.5 expected
Houston Astros by 19 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 18 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 17 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCOL wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more57%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more47%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCody Bolton SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·COL
Apr 5 at ATH
last game
Apr 5 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
HOU·COL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
7.0
runs / game
3.3
5.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
6−4
season record
3−6
5−2
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.8
hits / game
7.4
1.40
home runs / game
0.89
6.1
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
10.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.20
errors / game
0.22

Rating Trend

HOU · COL · 12 days
Houston AstrosColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Aug 28, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at HOUCOL 6 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at COLHOU 5 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at COLHOU 6 − 5
Jun 26, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at COLHOU 8 − 2
Apr 27, 2024at COLHOU 12 − 4

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L