bayesRatings

Mariners at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SEA 0 – TEX 3
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000000000021
TEX00003000360
Team box
SEA·TEX
2
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
13
strikeouts
4
116
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4000
Josh SmithTEX2-3100
Mitch GarverSEA1-3000
Cole YoungSEA1-3000
Corey SeagerTEX0-2001
Danny JansenTEX1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (L)SEA5.05122
MacKenzie Gore (W)TEX5.01029
Cole Winn (S)TEX1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 3.9 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
7.7
MarinersThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
3.8Expected runs3.9
+0.07Power rating+0.04
3.3Runs / game3.7
3.2Allowed / game3.5
6.3Hits / game8.0
0.92Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game2.6
4−8Season record6−5
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10648%−12154.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10652%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TEX
Apr 7 at TEX
last game
Apr 7 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
SEA·TEX
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.3
runs / game
3.7
3.2
runs allowed / game
3.5
4−8
season record
6−5
3−4
home record
2−3
1−4
away record
4−2
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
6.3
hits / game
8.0
0.92
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.6
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.58
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SEA · TEX · 14 days
Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 29, 2025at TEXSEA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at TEXSEA 7 − 6
May 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W