bayesRatings

Mariners at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SEA 1 – TEX 2
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA100000000121
TEX10000100271
Team box
SEA·TEX
2
hits
7
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
131
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cal RaleighSEA1-3111
Corey SeagerTEX2-3101
Jake BurgerTEX1-4001
Josh JungTEX2-3000
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-3000
Joc PedersonTEX1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA6.06205
Jacob deGromTEX5.01116
Jalen Beeks (W)TEX1.00010
Jakob Junis (S)TEX1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 1 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 49%, TEX 51% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 4.0 SEA
Expected total
8.0
MarinersThe matchupRangers
+103Our fair odds−103
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.09Power rating+0.03
3.7Runs / game4.0
3.4Allowed / game4.0
6.6Hits / game8.3
0.90Home runs / game1.11
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
4−6Season record4−5
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10349%−10350.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10351%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TEX
Apr 5 at LAA
last game
Apr 5 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SEA·TEX
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.7
runs / game
4.0
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
4−6
season record
4−5
3−4
home record
0−3
1−2
away record
4−2
L2
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
4−6
6.6
hits / game
8.3
0.90
home runs / game
1.11
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
10.4
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
10.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.50
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SEA · TEX · 12 days
Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 29, 2025at TEXSEA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at TEXSEA 7 − 6
May 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
May 3, 2025at TEXSEA 2 − 1
May 2, 2025at TEXSEA 13 − 1

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L