bayesRatings

Cardinals at Astros

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final STL 9 – HOU 4
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL1021003209102
HOU002010010481
Team box
STL·HOU
10
hits
8
2
home runs
3
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
160
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4213
Nolan GormanSTL1-5113
Christian VazquezHOU2-3111
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-5111
Jose AltuveHOU1-5111
Taylor TrammellHOU2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.05306
Peter Lambert (L)HOU5.07418

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · STL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 47%, HOU 53% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
HOU by 0.5
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.3 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupAstros
+115Our fair odds−115
4.3Expected runs4.8
−0.05Power rating−0.01
4.4Runs / game5.3
5.4Allowed / game5.8
7.6Hits / game9.0
1.11Home runs / game1.05
4.3Walks drawn / game4.5
10−8Season record8−12
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11547%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11553%−13156.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.5our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more41%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 7 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 16.39 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·HOU
Apr 15 vs CLE
last game
Apr 16 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
STL·HOU
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.4
runs / game
5.3
5.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
10−8
season record
8−12
7−5
home record
7−3
3−3
away record
1−9
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.6
hits / game
9.0
1.11
home runs / game
1.05
4.3
walks drawn / game
4.5
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.50
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

STL · HOU · 23 days
St. Louis CardinalsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 5−4
Apr 16, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at STLHOU 2 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 3
Jun 5, 2024at HOUSTL 4 − 2
Jun 4, 2024at HOUHOU 8 − 5
Jun 3, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 4
Jun 29, 2023at STLHOU 14 − 0
Jun 28, 2023at STLHOU 10 − 7
Jun 27, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 2

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L
Apr 10at SEA6 − 9L
Apr 8at COL1 − 9L
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L