bayesRatings

Rockies at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final COL 3 – HOU 2
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001110000390
HOU200000000250
Team box
COL·HOU
9
hits
5
1
home runs
0
6
walks
6
5
strikeouts
13
174
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-3111
Tyler FreemanCOL3-5001
Brenton DoyleCOL2-3100
Jose AltuveHOU2-4100
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4101
Joey LoperfidoHOU1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Juan MejiaCOL0.23202
Chase Dollander (W)COL5.11029
Victor Vodnik (S)COL1.00010
Ryan WeissHOU3.23243
Christian Roa (L)HOU1.13100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 2 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, HOU 69% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
HOU by 1.8
Expected score
HOU 5.6 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.4
RockiesThe matchupAstros
+221Our fair odds−221
3.8Expected runs5.6
−0.70Power rating−0.00
4.0Runs / game5.5
4.5Allowed / game6.0
8.0Hits / game9.2
1.06Home runs / game1.11
2.8Walks drawn / game4.5
6−12Season record8−11
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair31.2%68.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22131%+13442.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−22169%−16161.7%———
SpreadHOU by 1.8
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more51%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLJuan Mejia RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
HOURyan Weiss RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·HOU
Apr 15 at HOU
last game
Apr 15 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
COL·HOU
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.0
runs / game
5.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
6.0
6−12
season record
8−11
4−2
home record
7−2
2−10
away record
1−9
L6
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.0
hits / game
9.2
1.06
home runs / game
1.11
2.8
walks drawn / game
4.5
10.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.39
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

COL · HOU · 22 days
Colorado RockiesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Apr 15at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Apr 14at HOUHOU 7 − 6
Apr 8at COLCOL 9 − 1
Apr 7at COLCOL 5 − 1
Apr 6at COLCOL 9 − 7
Aug 28, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at HOUCOL 6 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at COLHOU 5 − 3

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L
Apr 10at SEA6 − 9L
Apr 8at COL1 − 9L
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L