bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 5 – SD 9
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL202000010591
SD003303009100
Team box
COL·SD
9
hits
10
3
home runs
2
4
walks
7
10
strikeouts
5
160
pitches thrown
165
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey MoniakCOL3-4224
Ramon LaureanoSD2-3313
Edouard JulienCOL2-3211
Manny MachadoSD1-5112
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-4001
Jackson MerrillSD1-4103
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL4.07634
German Marquez (W)SD5.04425
Jason Adam (S)SD0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +5
COL +5
123456789
largest lead: SD 5 · COL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 30%, SD 70% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
SD by 2.4
Expected score
SD 5.4 – 3.0 COL
Expected total
8.3
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+230Our fair odds−230
3.0Expected runs5.4
−0.63Power rating+0.12
4.1Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game7.1
0.93Home runs / game0.79
2.6Walks drawn / game3.4
6−8Season record8−6
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair30.3%69.7%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+23030%+14041.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−23070%−16862.7%———
SpreadSD by 2.4
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.4 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 12%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more57%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 9 Kstarted
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 7.30 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Apr 10 at SD
last game
Apr 10 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
COL·SD
−0.63
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.1
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
6−8
season record
8−6
4−2
home record
4−4
2−6
away record
4−2
L2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.1
0.93
home runs / game
0.79
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.36
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 17 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at COLSD 10 − 8
Sep 5, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at COLCOL 9 − 3

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L