bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Thursday, Apr 9 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 3 – SD 7
← MLB / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
COL0010000001103102
SD001000000114790
Team box
COL·SD
10
hits
9
1
home runs
1
2
walks
6
14
strikeouts
7
180
pitches thrown
174
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xander BogaertsSD2-6214
Brenton DoyleCOL2-4111
Brett SullivanCOL1-2001
Tyler FreemanCOL1-2001
Edouard JulienCOL2-3000
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jimmy HergetCOL1.00000
Valente Bellozo (L)COL0.11320
Randy VasquezSD5.27108
David Morgan (W)SD1.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
COL +4
123456789101112
largest lead: SD 4 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, SD 69% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
SD by 2.3
Expected score
SD 5.3 – 3.1 COL
Expected total
8.4
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+221Our fair odds−221
3.1Expected runs5.3
−0.60Power rating+0.11
4.4Runs / game3.8
3.6Allowed / game4.0
8.2Hits / game7.1
1.00Home runs / game0.58
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
6−6Season record6−6
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair31.1%68.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22131%+15239.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres−22169%−18364.6%———
SpreadSD by 2.3
COLColorado Rockies+2.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 12%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more56%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLJimmy Herget RP · last 2 starts: 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 4 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Apr 8 vs HOU
last game
Apr 8 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
COL·SD
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.4
runs / game
3.8
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
6−6
season record
6−6
4−2
home record
2−4
2−4
away record
4−2
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
7.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.58
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.25
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 15 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at COLSD 10 − 8
Sep 5, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at COLCOL 9 − 3
May 10, 2025at COLSD 21 − 0
May 9, 2025at COLSD 13 − 9

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W