bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 2 – SD 5
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000000020280
SD000020003560
Team box
COL·SD
8
hits
6
0
home runs
3
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gavin SheetsSD2-4224
Luis CampusanoSD2-2111
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-1101
Jordan BeckCOL1-1001
Willi CastroCOL1-4000
Tyler FreemanCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL6.04203
Juan Mejia (L)COL0.12310
Walker BuehlerSD6.03004
Mason Miller (W)SD1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, SD 69% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
SD by 2.3
Expected score
SD 5.3 – 3.1 COL
Expected total
8.4
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+227Our fair odds−227
3.1Expected runs5.3
−0.62Power rating+0.12
4.3Runs / game4.1
3.8Allowed / game3.9
8.4Hits / game7.2
1.00Home runs / game0.62
2.7Walks drawn / game3.4
6−7Season record7−6
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22731%+14041.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−22769%−16862.7%———
SpreadSD by 2.3
COLColorado Rockies+2.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 12%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more56%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more44%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Apr 9 at SD
last game
Apr 9 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
COL·SD
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.3
runs / game
4.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
6−7
season record
7−6
4−2
home record
3−4
2−5
away record
4−2
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.2
1.00
home runs / game
0.62
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
10.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.38
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 16 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at COLSD 10 − 8
Sep 5, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at COLCOL 9 − 3
May 10, 2025at COLSD 21 − 0

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L