bayesRatings

Astros at Mariners

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final HOU 2 – SEA 6
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000020000270
SEA302010006130
Team box
HOU·SEA
7
hits
13
0
home runs
2
2
walks
1
6
strikeouts
3
121
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh NaylorSEA2-4225
Luke RaleySEA3-4001
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4000
Yainer DiazHOU1-3001
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4200
Cal RaleighSEA2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (L)HOU6.011613
George Kirby (W)SEA7.27216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
HOU +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 5 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 4.1 HOU
Expected total
8.6
AstrosThe matchupMariners
+119Our fair odds−119
4.1Expected runs4.5
+0.00Power rating+0.09
5.8Runs / game3.9
6.3Allowed / game3.5
9.5Hits / game6.4
1.19Home runs / game0.88
4.8Walks drawn / game4.7
6−10Season record7−9
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11946%+14640.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11954%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SEA
Apr 12 at SEA
last game
Apr 12 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
HOU·SEA
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
5.8
runs / game
3.9
6.3
runs allowed / game
3.5
6−10
season record
7−9
5−2
home record
6−4
1−8
away record
1−5
L7
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
4−6
9.5
hits / game
6.4
1.19
home runs / game
0.88
4.8
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.31
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · SEA · 19 days
Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 8−2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at SEAHOU 11 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 1
May 25, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 3

HOU · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L
Apr 10at SEA6 − 9L
Apr 8at COL1 − 9L
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L