bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 2 – SD 7
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000020000220
SD110112107100
Team box
COL·SD
2
hits
10
0
home runs
3
2
walks
6
12
strikeouts
2
142
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD3-3311
Ramon LaureanoSD1-4212
Jackson MerrillSD2-3211
Brett SullivanCOL1-3002
Manny MachadoSD1-1002
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle FreelandCOL0.00000
Jimmy Herget (L)COL1.01110
Nick PivettaSD3.00004
David Morgan (W)SD1.20014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 6 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 30%, SD 70% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
SD by 2.4
Expected score
SD 5.5 – 3.0 COL
Expected total
8.5
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+238Our fair odds−238
3.0Expected runs5.5
−0.66Power rating+0.13
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game3.9
8.4Hits / game7.3
1.07Home runs / game0.87
2.7Walks drawn / game3.6
6−9Season record9−6
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair29.6%70.4%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+23830%+18135.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres−23870%−21868.5%———
SpreadSD by 2.4
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.4 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 12%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more57%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SDNick Pivetta SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Apr 11 at SD
last game
Apr 11 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
COL·SD
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.9
6−9
season record
9−6
4−2
home record
5−4
2−7
away record
4−2
L3
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
7.3
1.07
home runs / game
0.87
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 18 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at COLSD 10 − 8
Sep 5, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W