bayesRatings

Rockies at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final COL 6 – HOU 7
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL1201100106121
HOU016000007110
Team box
COL·HOU
12
hits
11
3
home runs
1
4
walks
1
12
strikeouts
9
136
pitches thrown
172
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-5222
Christian WalkerHOU3-4212
Jordan BeckCOL2-5211
Jake McCarthyCOL2-3002
Christian VazquezHOU2-4101
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL2.27213
Colton GordonHOU3.28405
AJ Blubaugh (W)HOU1.11111
Enyel De Los Santos (S)HOU0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
COL +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 32%, HOU 68% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
HOU by 1.7
Expected score
HOU 5.5 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupAstros
+210Our fair odds−210
3.8Expected runs5.5
−0.66Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game5.6
4.4Allowed / game6.3
8.0Hits / game9.4
1.00Home runs / game1.12
2.6Walks drawn / game4.6
6−10Season record6−11
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+21032%+14041.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−21068%−16862.7%———
SpreadHOU by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more50%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted
HOUColton Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·HOU
Apr 12 at SD
last game
Apr 13 at SEA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
COL·HOU
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
5.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
6.3
6−10
season record
6−11
4−2
home record
5−2
2−8
away record
1−9
L4
streak
L8
4−6
last 10
1−9
8.0
hits / game
9.4
1.00
home runs / game
1.12
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.6
10.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.38
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

COL · HOU · 20 days
Colorado RockiesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Apr 8at COLCOL 9 − 1
Apr 7at COLCOL 5 − 1
Apr 6at COLCOL 9 − 7
Aug 28, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at HOUCOL 6 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at COLHOU 5 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at COLHOU 6 − 5
Jun 26, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 1

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W
Apr 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L

HOU · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L
Apr 11at SEA7 − 8L
Apr 10at SEA6 − 9L
Apr 8at COL1 − 9L
Apr 7at COL1 − 5L
Apr 6at COL7 − 9L
Apr 5at ATH10 − 12L
Apr 4at ATH11 − 0W
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L