bayesRatings

Yankees at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final NYY 4 – HOU 7
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000001003471
HOU20203000770
Team box
NYY·HOU
7
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
137
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian WalkerHOU3-4114
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4313
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4111
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4101
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4200
Ryan McMahonNYY1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Gil (L)NYY4.05630
Spencer Arrighetti (W)HOU7.03118

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +7
NYY +7
123456789
largest lead: HOU 7 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, HOU 44% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.1 HOU
Expected total
9.7
YankeesThe matchupAstros
−129Our fair odds+129
5.5Expected runs4.1
+0.28Power rating−0.06
5.3Runs / game5.1
3.4Allowed / game6.1
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.56Home runs / game1.25
4.9Walks drawn / game4.2
18−9Season record10−18
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · HOU chance
Our model fair56.4%43.6%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12956%−13757.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+12944%+10947.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byHOU wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more49%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYLuis Gil SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 9 Kstarted
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·HOU
Apr 25 at HOU
last game
Apr 25 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
NYY·HOU
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.3
runs / game
5.1
3.4
runs allowed / game
6.1
18−9
season record
10−18
8−5
home record
7−8
10−4
away record
3−10
W8
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.56
home runs / game
1.25
4.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.48
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

NYY · HOU · 32 days
New York YankeesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Apr 25at HOUNYY 8 − 3
Apr 24at HOUNYY 12 − 4
Sep 4, 2025at HOUNYY 8 − 4
Sep 3, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 7
Sep 2, 2025at HOUNYY 7 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at NYYHOU 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at NYYHOU 5 − 3
May 9, 2024at NYYHOU 4 − 3
May 8, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 4

NYY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W