bayesRatings

Astros at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final HOU 2 – CLE 0
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU200000000261
CLE000000000050
Team box
HOU·CLE
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU3-4112
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4000
Steven KwanCLE1-3000
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3000
Carlos CorreaHOU1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter Lambert (W)HOU6.03038
Enyel De Los Santos (S)HOU1.11011
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE6.05223

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · HOU 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.1
AstrosThe matchupGuardians
+121Our fair odds−121
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.04Power rating+0.07
5.4Runs / game4.2
6.0Allowed / game4.4
8.9Hits / game7.5
1.20Home runs / game1.04
4.4Walks drawn / game4.0
9−16Season record14−11
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+12145%+13442.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12155%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CLE
Apr 21 at CLE
last game
Apr 21 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
HOU·CLE
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
5.4
runs / game
4.2
6.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
9−16
season record
14−11
7−6
home record
8−4
2−10
away record
6−7
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
7.5
1.20
home runs / game
1.04
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.32
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

HOU · CLE · 28 days
Houston AstrosCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Apr 21at CLECLE 8 − 5
Apr 20at CLEHOU 9 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at HOUCLE 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at HOUCLE 10 − 6
Jul 7, 2025at HOUCLE 7 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CLEHOU 5 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at CLEHOU 4 − 2
Sep 28, 2024at CLEHOU 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2024at CLEHOU 5 − 2

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L
Apr 12at SEA1 − 6L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L